Government Shutdown 2025: What It Means for Your Money

The federal government has officially shut down after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on a funding bill. While politics drive the headlines, let’s focus on what this means for your wallet, investments, and financial planning.

What Stays Open and What Shuts Down

Even during a shutdown, essential services continue:

• Still running: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, TSA, federal courts, and postal services.

• Temporarily halted: Some national parks, the Small Business Administration (SBA), and federal economic data collection.
  

Delayed Economic Data

One of the biggest financial impacts is the delay in key economic reports:

• Jobs Report: Originally scheduled for October 3rd, now postponed indefinitely.

• Inflation Report (CPI): Scheduled for October 15th, but likely delayed too.

This matters because the Federal Reserve relies on these reports to guide interest rate decisions. If the data isn’t available before the next Fed meeting on October 29th, the Fed may have to make decisions in the dark.

Impact on Social Security COLA

The Social Security Administration typically announces the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in mid-October. That announcement may be delayed if inflation data is not available. Important: Payments will still go out on time in 2026. The only issue is waiting longer to know the official adjustment amount.

Stock Market and the Dollar

Historically, shutdowns have had minimal effect on stocks. On average, the S&P 500 has gained about 0.3% during shutdown periods.

The bigger story is the U.S. dollar: shutdowns often weaken it. A weaker dollar tends to benefit commodities like gold and silver, which could be good news for precious metals investors.

Federal Employees and Pay

• 750,000 workers furloughed: Placed on leave without pay.

• Essential workers: Must continue working but won’t be paid until the shutdown ends.

• Back pay guaranteed: Once the government reopens, employees will be paid retroactively.

• Congress: Members of Congress still receive paychecks, a point of frustration for many.

• USPS: Continues to operate and pay employees, since it is self-funded.

Economic Impact

The overall impact on the economy is expected to be minimal, since federal employees eventually receive back pay and government spending resumes once operations restart.

How Long Could This Last?

• The average shutdown in the past 50 years lasted about 8 days.

• This one could be short-lived—or drag out longer depending on negotiations.

• The sticking point: disagreements in the Senate, where Republicans hold a majority but need Democratic support to pass funding.

  
  

For most Americans, essential benefits continue, but delayed economic reports could complicate Fed policy and financial planning. The shutdown may create short-term uncertainty for the dollar and commodities, but history shows little impact on the stock market or economy overall.

Housing Market Update: Where Things Stand in 2025

The U.S. housing market in 2025 has been a

mixed bag for both buyers and sellers. Home prices continue to inch upward, but affordability challenges and sluggish activity paint a complicated picture.

Home Prices: Up, But Uneven

At the national level, home prices are up 1.5% compared to last year. However, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. Some regions, particularly parts of the South, have seen price declines, while the North and Northeast continue to experience price gains. What this means for you largely depends on where you live. Sales Activity: At Historic Lows

Home sales are slowing dramatically. In August 2025, 460,000 homes were sold—that’s 2.5% fewer than last year and a 31% drop compared to 2020, when 672,000 homes changed hands in the same month. The market is moving at one of the slowest paces we’ve seen in over a decade.

Mortgage Rates: Still Elevated

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is holding above 6%, a far cry from the sub-3% rates buyers enjoyed just a few years ago. High home prices combined with elevated rates have pushed affordability to record lows.

Federal Reserve Policy: Slow and Cautious

The Federal Reserve recently cut its benchmark rate slightly, from 4.5% to 4.25%, with projections of gradual cuts through 2028. However, mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has not moved much despite these changes. For buyers hoping for significant mortgage relief soon, patience may be required. Predictions: What’s Next?

Industry experts project modest growth in 2026:

• National Association of Realtors: +4%

• Fannie Mae: +1.1%

• Mortgage Bankers Association: +0.3%

In short, expectations range from flat to moderate price increases. If the Fed takes a more aggressive approach with monetary easing, home prices could climb higher. Buyer or Seller’s Market?

Right now, the market leans toward buyers, with 35% more sellers than buyers. This is putting downward pressure on prices. Still, ongoing inflation and record levels of money supply are applying upward pressure at the same time—creating a tug-of-war that makes predicting outcomes tricky. Bottom Line

The 2025 housing market is defined by sluggish activity, affordability challenges, and regional disparities. While prices aren’t crashing, they aren’t booming either. The real test will come in how the Federal Reserve manages monetary policy and how the broader economy performs heading into 2026.

For now, buyers have more negotiating power, but affordability remains the biggest hurdle. Sellers, on the other hand, face a market that demands patience and realistic pricing strategies.

Understanding the Child Tax Credit: What Families Need to Know

Raising children is rewarding, but it also comes with significant financial responsibilities. To help families offset some of these costs, the U.S. government provides the Child Tax Credit (CTC) — a valuable benefit designed to put money back into parents’ pockets.

What Is the Child Tax Credit?

The Child Tax Credit is a federal tax benefit that reduces the amount of income tax owed by families with qualifying children. Depending on your situation, the credit may even result in a refund if the amount exceeds your tax liability.

Who Qualifies for the Child Tax Credit?

Eligibility is based on several factors, including:

• Age of the child: The child must generally be under 17 at the end of the tax year.

• Relationship: The child must be your son, daughter, stepchild, foster child, sibling, or a descendant of one of these (such as a grandchild).

• Residency: The child must have lived with you for more than half of the year.

• Financial Support: You must have provided more than half of the child’s support.

• Income limits: The credit begins to phase out for higher-income households.

  
  

How Much Is the Credit Worth?

The value of the Child Tax Credit has changed over the years depending on legislation. For the most recent tax year, eligible families can typically claim up to $2,000 per qualifying child. Up to $1,600 of this may be refundable, meaning you could receive a refund even if you don’t owe any federal income tax.

Why the Child Tax Credit Matters

The CTC can make a meaningful difference for families by:

• Reducing tax bills.

• Increasing potential refunds.

• Helping with everyday costs like food, clothing, childcare, and school expenses.

  
  

Claiming the Credit

To claim the Child Tax Credit, you’ll need to file a tax return and list your qualifying children along with their Social Security numbers. It’s important to provide accurate information and ensure all requirements are met to avoid delays or adjustments.

The Child Tax Credit is more than just a line on your tax return — it’s a vital resource that eases financial strain and supports families in raising the next generation. Understanding how it works and maximizing your eligibility can help ensure your family receives the full benefit. individuals to join our team.